JULY 2007 KEY POINTS
Trend
The July 2007 trend estimate for new motor vehicle sales (87 238) increased 0.1% when compared with the June 2007 estimate. The trend estimate has now been increasing for 14 consecutive months. When compared to July 2006, the trend estimate increased by 9.1%
Passenger vehicles increased 0.2% and sports utility vehicles increased 0.1% when comparing July 2007 to June 2007. The increase in trend estimates for passenger vehicles has continued for a period of 15 months, with sports utility vehicles showing increases for the last 14 months. Other vehicles, however, have decreased by 0.1% when comparing July 2007 to June 2007. This is the first monthly decrease for other vehicle trend estimates since September 2006.
All vehicle types have recorded increases when compared to the same period 12 months ago. Sports utility vehicles, other vehicles and passenger vehicles rose 14.0%, 9.6% and 7.6%, respectively.
Seasonally adjusted
The July 2007 seasonally adjusted estimate for total sales of new motor vehicles (88 063) increased by 0.6% compared with June 2007. Other vehicles increased by 2.8% and sports utility vehicles increased by 1.2%. Passenger vehicles decreased by 0.3%.
Total sales increased in six states and territories when comparing July 2007 to June 2007, with Tasmania recording the largest increase of 5.4%. Western Australia and South Australia followed with increases of 2.4% and 1.4% respectively. The Northern Territory and Victoria both recorded decreases of 3.0% and 0.3% respectively.
New motor vehicles sales July 2007
| NSW | Vic. | Qld | SA | WA | Tas.(a) | NT(a) | ACT(a) | Aust. |
Vehicle sales
|
| | | | | | | | | |
Seasonally adjusted | 26 940 | 22 133 | 19 591 | 5 154 | 10 345 | 1 712 | 798 | 1 390 | 88 063 |
Trend | 26 687 | 21 957 | 19 520 | 5 069 | 10 170 | 1 632 | 810 | 1 393 | 87 238 |
Percentage change from previous month
|
| | | | | | | | | |
Seasonally adjusted | 0.2 | -0.3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 5.4 | -3.0 | 0.3 | 0.6 |
Trend | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | -0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | -0.9 | -0.4 | 0.1 |
Percentage change from previous year
|
| | | | | | | | | |
Seasonally adjusted | 11.3 | 8.0 | 6.7 | 0.8 | 9.4 | 15.0 | 6.4 | 19.3 | 8.7 |
Trend | 10.7 | 8.9 | 10.5 | -0.1 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 6.2 | 17.0 | 9.1 |
|
(a) Seasonally adjusted numbers of new motor vehicle sales in Tasmania, Northern Territory and Australian Capital Territory should be used with caution. For further information, see paragraph 7 of the Explanatory Notes.
NOTES
FORTHCOMING ISSUES
ISSUE | RELEASE DATE |
| |
August 2007 | 21 September 2007 |
September 2007 | 19 October 2007 |
October 2007 | 21 November 2007 |
November 2007 | 21 December 2007 |
December 2007 | 22 January 2008 |
January 2008 | 21 February 2008 |
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES
The "what-if" analysis is presented to give an indicative view of the possible revision of the current trend estimate based on the different scenarios of the future seasonally adjusted estimates. These estimates should not be used as a prediction of future trend estimates. For further information, see Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 11 and 12.
The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the published trend estimates.
1 | The August 2007 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is higher than the July 2007 seasonally adjusted estimate by 3.4%. |
2 | The August 2007 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is lower than the July 2007 seasonally adjusted estimate by 3.4%. |
The percentage change of 3.4% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change over the last 10 years has been 3.4%.
SUMMARY - TREND AND SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES.
Table 1: New motor vehicle sales by type of vehicle
|
| | Passenger vehicles
(No.) | Sports
utility
vehicles
(No.) | Other
vehicles
(No.) | Total
vehicles
(No.) | Change passenger vehicles
(%) | Change sports
utility vehicles
(%) | Change other vehicles
(%) | Change
total
vehicles
(%) |
|
Original |
|
2006 | May | 50 683 | 14 816 | 17 958 | 83 457 | 19.8 | 24.5 | 24.3 | 21.6 |
| June | 57 026 | 18 079 | 21 343 | 96 448 | 12.5 | 22.0 | 18.8 | 15.6 |
| July | 48 798 | 13 279 | 15 485 | 77 562 | -14.4 | -26.6 | -27.4 | -19.6 |
| August | 52 030 | 13 539 | 16 092 | 81 661 | 6.6 | 2.0 | 3.9 | 5.3 |
| September | 51 388 | 13 208 | 15 397 | 79 993 | -1.2 | -2.4 | -4.3 | -2.0 |
| October | 50 532 | 13 921 | 15 477 | 79 930 | -1.7 | 5.4 | 0.5 | -0.1 |
| November | 51 850 | 15 193 | 16 254 | 83 297 | 2.6 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 4.2 |
| December | 48 348 | 14 258 | 14 457 | 77 063 | -6.8 | -6.2 | -11.1 | -7.5 |
| | | | | | | | | |
2007 | January | 49 189 | 14 303 | 13 444 | 76 936 | 1.7 | 0.3 | -7.0 | -0.2 |
| February | 52 628 | 14 912 | 16 200 | 83 740 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 20.5 | 8.8 |
| March | 57 757 | 17 589 | 19 046 | 94 392 | 9.7 | 18.0 | 17.6 | 12.7 |
| April | 45 109 | 14 274 | 16 231 | 75 614 | -21.9 | -18.8 | -14.8 | -19.9 |
| May | 52 727 | 16 912 | 18 958 | 88 597 | 16.9 | 18.5 | 16.8 | 17.2 |
| June | 63 768 | 18 966 | 22 363 | 105 097 | 20.9 | 12.1 | 18.0 | 18.6 |
| July | 53 589 | 15 396 | 17 306 | 86 291 | -16.0 | -18.8 | -22.6 | -17.9 |
|
Seasonally adjusted |
|
2006 | May | 49 821 | 14 024 | 16 412 | 80 257 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| June | 48 438 | 14 323 | 15 726 | 78 487 | -2.8 | 2.1 | -4.2 | -2.2 |
| July | 50 840 | 14 182 | 16 014 | 81 036 | 5.0 | -1.0 | 1.8 | 3.2 |
| August | 50 354 | 13 125 | 15 944 | 79 423 | -1.0 | -7.5 | -0.4 | -2.0 |
| September | 50 908 | 14 527 | 16 008 | 81 443 | 1.1 | 10.7 | 0.4 | 2.5 |
| October | 50 380 | 15 043 | 16 317 | 81 740 | -1.0 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.4 |
| November | 50 596 | 14 892 | 16 070 | 81 558 | 0.4 | -1.0 | -1.5 | -0.2 |
| December | 51 563 | 14 838 | 15 697 | 82 098 | 1.9 | -0.4 | -2.3 | 0.7 |
| | | | | | | | | |
2007 | January | 54 269 | 15 353 | 16 945 | 86 567 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 8.0 | 5.4 |
| February | 53 684 | 15 462 | 17 249 | 86 395 | -1.1 | 0.7 | 1.8 | -0.2 |
| March | 53 920 | 15 587 | 17 562 | 87 069 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| April | 51 993 | 16 369 | 17 437 | 85 799 | -3.6 | 5.0 | -0.7 | -1.5 |
| May | 52 639 | 15 657 | 17 342 | 85 638 | 1.2 | -4.3 | -0.5 | -0.2 |
| June | 54 492 | 15 797 | 17 250 | 87 539 | 3.5 | 0.9 | -0.5 | 2.2 |
| July | 54 345 | 15 986 | 17 732 | 88 063 | -0.3 | 1.2 | 2.8 | 0.6 |
|
Trend |
|
2006 | May | 49 420 | 13 921 | 16 124 | 79 465 | 0.2 | -0.6 | -0.9 | -0.2 |
| June | 49 674 | 13 922 | 16 039 | 79 635 | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | 0.2 |
| July | 49 933 | 14 004 | 15 990 | 79 927 | 0.5 | 0.6 | -0.3 | 0.4 |
| August | 50 175 | 14 138 | 15 958 | 80 271 | 0.5 | 1.0 | -0.2 | 0.4 |
| September | 50 447 | 14 332 | 15 953 | 80 732 | 0.5 | 1.4 | -0.0 | 0.6 |
| October | 50 893 | 14 561 | 16 016 | 81 470 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.9 |
| November | 51 528 | 14 826 | 16 173 | 82 527 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| December | 52 179 | 15 098 | 16 422 | 83 699 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| | | | | | | | | |
2007 | January | 52 734 | 15 338 | 16 719 | 84 791 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| February | 53 132 | 15 520 | 17 013 | 85 665 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| March | 53 318 | 15 671 | 17 249 | 86 238 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| April | 53 388 | 15 808 | 17 404 | 86 600 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| May | 53 478 | 15 897 | 17 487 | 86 862 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| June | 53 632 | 15 953 | 17 544 | 87 129 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| July | 53 740 | 15 968 | 17 530 | 87 238 | 0.2 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.1 |
|
|
Table 2: New motor vehicle sales by state/territory of registration
|
| | NSW | Vic. | Qld | SA | WA | Tas.(a) | NT(a) | ACT(a) | Aust. |
| | (No.) | (No.) | (No.) | (No.) | (No.) | (No.) | (No.) | (No.) | (No.) |
|
Original |
|
2006 | May | 25 124 | 20 776 | 18 774 | 5 601 | 9 472 | 1 623 | 863 | 1 224 | 83 457 |
| June | 28 560 | 23 015 | 23 091 | 6 164 | 11 170 | 1 936 | 1 058 | 1 454 | 96 448 |
| July | 23 688 | 19 322 | 17 910 | 4 794 | 8 720 | 1 334 | 679 | 1 115 | 77 562 |
| August | 24 223 | 21 043 | 18 124 | 5 107 | 9 736 | 1 436 | 768 | 1 224 | 81 661 |
| September | 24 267 | 20 449 | 17 061 | 4 903 | 9 716 | 1 688 | 682 | 1 227 | 79 993 |
| October | 24 379 | 20 785 | 16 625 | 4 781 | 9 591 | 1 797 | 762 | 1 210 | 79 930 |
| November | 25 418 | 20 739 | 18 076 | 5 116 | 9 972 | 1 973 | 733 | 1 270 | 83 297 |
| December | 22 927 | 19 790 | 16 551 | 4 700 | 9 471 | 1 748 | 688 | 1 188 | 77 063 |
| | | | | | | | | | |
2007 | January | 24 429 | 19 000 | 16 769 | 4 620 | 8 929 | 1 285 | 651 | 1 253 | 76 936 |
| February | 25 636 | 21 510 | 18 221 | 5 138 | 9 625 | 1 463 | 771 | 1 376 | 83 740 |
| March | 29 107 | 23 408 | 21 772 | 5 588 | 10 530 | 1 533 | 978 | 1 476 | 94 392 |
| April | 23 245 | 18 833 | 16 907 | 4 616 | 8 701 | 1 214 | 883 | 1 215 | 75 614 |
| May | 26 649 | 22 151 | 20 428 | 5 237 | 10 172 | 1 587 | 973 | 1 400 | 88 597 |
| June | 31 965 | 25 491 | 24 997 | 6 152 | 11 995 | 1 750 | 1 107 | 1 640 | 105 097 |
| July | 26 851 | 21 655 | 19 600 | 4 871 | 9 645 | 1 561 | 739 | 1 369 | 86 291 |
|
Seasonally adjusted |
|
2006 | May | 24 140 | 20 199 | 17 793 | 5 318 | 9 285 | 1 627 | 740 | 1 155 | 80 257 |
| June | 23 871 | 19 308 | 17 516 | 5 030 | 9 100 | 1 679 | 756 | 1 227 | 78 487 |
| July | 24 210 | 20 485 | 18 365 | 5 115 | 9 457 | 1 489 | 750 | 1 165 | 81 036 |
| August | 23 973 | 20 342 | 17 223 | 4 940 | 9 534 | 1 415 | 801 | 1 195 | 79 423 |
| September | 24 721 | 20 744 | 17 588 | 5 028 | 9 665 | 1 684 | 765 | 1 248 | 81 443 |
| October | 25 138 | 20 524 | 17 889 | 4 890 | 9 625 | 1 634 | 838 | 1 202 | 81 740 |
| November | 24 902 | 19 989 | 18 392 | 4 970 | 9 596 | 1 672 | 765 | 1 272 | 81 558 |
| December | 25 037 | 20 370 | 18 596 | 4 824 | 9 795 | 1 411 | 804 | 1 261 | 82 098 |
| | | | | | | | | | |
2007 | January | 26 714 | 21 744 | 19 030 | 5 404 | 9 933 | 1 568 | 839 | 1 335 | 86 567 |
| February | 25 964 | 22 187 | 19 074 | 5 207 | 10 020 | 1 719 | 827 | 1 397 | 86 395 |
| March | 26 670 | 21 954 | 19 558 | 5 263 | 9 807 | 1 599 | 827 | 1 391 | 87 069 |
| April | 26 347 | 21 202 | 19 240 | 5 214 | 9 991 | 1 553 | 842 | 1 410 | 85 799 |
| May | 25 948 | 21 636 | 19 390 | 4 979 | 9 948 | 1 543 | 814 | 1 380 | 85 638 |
| June | 26 898 | 22 205 | 19 417 | 5 083 | 10 103 | 1 624 | 823 | 1 386 | 87 539 |
| July | 26 940 | 22 133 | 19 591 | 5 154 | 10 345 | 1 712 | 798 | 1 390 | 88 063 |
|
Trend |
|
2006 | May | 24 103 | 20 032 | 17 587 | 5 140 | 9 082 | 1 578 | 754 | 1 189 | 79 465 |
| June | 24 044 | 2 0079 | 17 628 | 5 120 | 9 253 | 1 570 | 754 | 1 187 | 79 635 |
| July | 24 101 | 20 170 | 17 663 | 5 072 | 9 397 | 1 570 | 763 | 1 191 | 79 927 |
| August | 24 268 | 20 235 | 17 710 | 5 009 | 9 503 | 1 573 | 774 | 1 199 | 80 271 |
| September | 24 517 | 20 302 | 17 799 | 4 956 | 9 586 | 1 574 | 785 | 1 213 | 80 732 |
| October | 24 834 | 20 439 | 17 985 | 4 947 | 9 660 | 1 578 | 795 | 1 232 | 81 470 |
| November | 25 214 | 20 671 | 18 265 | 4 993 | 9 731 | 1 588 | 804 | 1 261 | 82 527 |
| December | 25 590 | 20 948 | 18 598 | 5 066 | 9 796 | 1 594 | 812 | 1 295 | 83 699 |
| | | | | | | | | | |
2007 | January | 25 908 | 21 244 | 18 911 | 5 139 | 9 845 | 1 592 | 820 | 1 332 | 84 791 |
| February | 26 146 | 21 523 | 19 143 | 5 186 | 9 892 | 1 586 | 827 | 1 362 | 85 665 |
| March | 26 312 | 21 718 | 19 275 | 5 196 | 9 937 | 1 589 | 829 | 1 382 | 86 238 |
| April | 26 435 | 21 822 | 19 363 | 5 175 | 9 985 | 1 599 | 828 | 1 393 | 86 600 |
| May | 26 535 | 21 881 | 19 432 | 5 142 | 10 042 | 1 609 | 824 | 1 397 | 86 862 |
| June | 26 639 | 21 943 | 19 488 | 5 112 | 10 107 | 1 625 | 817 | 1 398 | 87 129 |
| July | 26 687 | 21 957 | 19 520 | 5 069 | 10 170 | 1 632 | 810 | 1 393 | 87 238 |
|
(a) Seasonally adjusted numbers of new motor vehicle sales in Tasmania, Northern Territory and Australian Capital Territory should be used with caution. For further information, see paragraph 7 of the Explanatory Notes. |